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El comienzo más inflacionario desde 2016

El Gobierno espera una desaceleración leve de la inflación tras el 4,8% de marzo

Hoy, el Indec anunciará el IPC de abril y las expectativas son malas. Tras el 4,8% de marzo, el Gobierno (y los consumidores) está necesitado de una cifra más baja para revertir la tendencia de la aceleración, que siempre es complicada en una economía indexada de facto. 

Según los privados, que ya cerraron sus números, es probable que el Gobierno consiga exhibir una desaceleración. Que puede ser leve (con un IPC arriba de 4% todavía) o mayor (si logra perforar el 4%). 

Sea cual fuera, sería recomendable que el Gobierno presente el dato sin triunfalismos porque, en rigor, no hay nada para celebrar: con el dato de hoy, la inflación acumulada en 2021 quedará entre 16% y 17%. Será el comienzo más inflacionario desde 2016 y la meta del Gobierno será aún más incumplible

A nivel desagregado, el dato más mirado será el de alimentos y bebidas, el rubro más sensible y sobre el cual el Gobierno más ha puesto el foco. Hasta marzo, los precios del rubro subieron 13,8%, por encima del nivel general de 13%.

“Desde LCG estimamos una suba promedio de precio del 3,9% mensual”, dijeron desde la consultora que lidera Guido Lorenzo. El mes pasado, el relevamiento de precios online de LCG había anticipado un incremento de 4,4% en los alimentos y bebidas, sobre lo que se suman aumentos puntuales en combustibles (6%), personal doméstico (10%), expensas (entre 5% y 7% por el cierre de paritarias de encargados de edificio) y el efecto del descongelamiento de alquileres, entre otros. 

De confirmarse nuestra estimación, la inflación anual treparía a 45,9%”, dijeron y destacaron, ya en mayo, cierta desaceleración en su medición de alta frecuencia de los alimentos. “El relevamiento cerró con una inflación de 0,8% semanal en la primera semana del mayo. Se trata de una aceleración de 0,5 puntos respecto al cierre de abril, pero vuelve a ubicarse por debajo del 1% por tercera semana consecutiva”, dijeron. 

Según el IPC-OJF (GBA), que elabora Orlando J. Ferreres, la inflación de abril fue de 4% mensual y registró un crecimiento interanual de 40,9%. Por otra parte, la inflación núcleo avanzó a un ritmo mensual de 3,8%, con un aumento de 44% anual. La inflación general acumulada en 2021, así, fue de 15,9%.

Ecolatina, en tanto, ubicó su IPC GBA en 4,4% en abril. Así, se aceleró  0,5 punto contra marzo (que había dado 3,9%). “La inflación acumuló 16,4% en el primer cuatrimestre del año, el mayor registro desde los primeros cuatro meses de 2016, cuando la salida del cepo se combinó con fuertes aumentos tarifarios”, señalaron. Para mayo, proyectaron, la inflación “difícilmente perfore el 3%”. 

El último REM del BCRA espera 3,8% para abril; 3,2% para mayo; 3% para junio; 2,8% para julio; 2,6% para agosto; 2,5% para septiembre y 2,6% para octubre. Para todo 2021, quienes participan del REM proyectaron que la inflación será de 47,3%.

Ayer, el ministro de Desarrollo Productivo, Matías Kulfas, señaló: “La inflación, como lo dijimos en reiteradas ocasiones, es multicausal y no es un fenómeno que se combata en los acuerdos de precios o con algún tipo de control. Son herramientas que contribuyen a moderar las expectativas inflacionarias”.

Como tendencia, señaló: “Estamos esperando una inflación que vaya hacia la baja y en los próximos meses estamos esperando una reducción, pero vamos a esperar porque somos muy respetuosos de la provisión de información que es muy compleja y seguir trabajando desde lo macro con el Ministerio de Economía y el BCRA para generar expectativas a la baja y nosotros con las políticas de carne y diferentes productos para ir alineando esa expectativa y para ofrecer a los sectores con menores ingresos una oferta más accesible”.

Lideró la lechuga y la tapa de asado

Según un informe del Cepa sobre precios de alimentos, el mayor incremento del mes pasado lo tuvo la lechuga, con una suba de 93%. Muy lejos de ese porcentaje, también hubo subas en la papa (6%) y la naranja (5%). El promedio de variaciones mensuales se ubicó en el orden del 1,4%, dijo Cepa. 

Por el lado de las carnes, la vacuna tuvo una suba promedio de 3,5% en abril, bastante debajo de 7,3% de marzo mientras que el pollo, casi sin cambios, subió 0,1% mensual. Hubo bastante disparidad: la picada común, por ejemplo, bajó 1% mensual mientras que la tapa de asado subió 6,4%.

Fuente: El Economista

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